La Liga
· Round 4 · Sat 05 Sep, 14:15
Pre-match prediction
33%
26%
41%
Athletic Bilbao 33%
Draw 26%
41% Atletico Madrid
⏳Made before lineups were confirmed for this match.
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.39
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Both teams to score
55%
Model confidence
normal
Most likely scorelines
1-1 12%
0-1 9%
1-0 9%
1-2 8%
2-1 8%
Compared to the betting market (reference only, not used as a model input)
Athletic Bilbao
33% vs 35%
Draw
26% vs 28%
Atletico Madrid
41% vs 37%
Lineups
Reference only — not used by the prediction model. Positions (LB/CB/RB etc.) are a best-effort guess from the source's own left-to-right player order, not a confirmed tactical slot.
AM
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2
13
Oblak GK
5.8
1826
14
Llorente LB
7.0
1746
17
Hancko CB
6.6
1580
18
Pubill CB
6.7
1558
22
Grimaldo RB
6.7
1551
8
Barrios LM
7.0
1630
11
Lookman CM
5.7
1514
20
Simeone CM
6.1
1604
23
Hjulmand RM
6.2
1552
7
Kang-In ST
6.5
1509
10
Baena ST
6.5
1515
1
Simón GK
7.8
1514
5
Yeray LB
7.3
1466
12
Areso CB
6.7
1445
14
Laporte CB
7.5
1431
17
Yuri RB
7.4
1477
8
Sancet CDM
8.0
1492
10
Williams CDM
8.1
1573
16
de Galarreta LW
7.2
1553
23
Navarro CAM
8.2
1451
24
Gerenabarrena RW
6.8
1527
9
Williams ST
1A
7.1
1558
AB
Athletic Bilbao
4-2-3-1
Athletic Bilbao · Bench
Aitor Paredes, Beñat Prados, Álex Berenguer, Gorka Guruzeta, Álex Padilla, Hugo Rincón, Mikel Jauregizar, Alejandro Rego, Maroan Sannadi, Iker Monreal, J. Louis-Jean, S. Sanchez
Atletico Madrid · Bench
J. Musso, Rodrigo Mendoza, J. Cardoso, Koke, J. David, Arnau Ortiz, J. Álvarez, C. Romero, Robin Le Normand, J. Dominguez, Dani MartÃnez, J. Castillo
Athletic Bilbao · last 5
Atletico Madrid · last 5
Head-to-head
05 Sep 2026
Athletic Bilbao
3–0
Atletico Madrid
25 Apr 2026
Atletico Madrid
3–2
Athletic Bilbao
06 Dec 2025
Athletic Bilbao
1–0
Atletico Madrid
01 Mar 2025
Atletico Madrid
1–0
Athletic Bilbao
31 Aug 2024
Athletic Bilbao
0–1
Atletico Madrid
27 Apr 2024
Atletico Madrid
3–1
Athletic Bilbao
16 Dec 2023
Athletic Bilbao
2–0
Atletico Madrid
19 Feb 2023
Atletico Madrid
1–0
Athletic Bilbao
15 Oct 2022
Athletic Bilbao
0–1
Atletico Madrid
30 Apr 2022
Athletic Bilbao
2–0
Atletico Madrid