La Liga
· Round 4 · Sat 05 Sep, 14:15
Pre-match prediction
33%
26%
41%
Athletic Bilbao 33%
Draw 26%
41% Atletico Madrid
⏳Made before lineups were confirmed for this match.
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.39
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Both teams to score
55%
Model confidence
normal
Most likely scorelines
1-1 12%
0-1 9%
1-0 9%
1-2 8%
2-1 8%
Compared to the betting market (reference only, not used as a model input)
Athletic Bilbao
33% vs 35%
Draw
26% vs 28%
Atletico Madrid
41% vs 37%
Lineups
Reference only — not used by the prediction model. Positions (LB/CB/RB etc.) are a best-effort guess from the source's own left-to-right player order, not a confirmed tactical slot.
AM
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2
13
Oblak GK
5.8
1787
14
Llorente LB
7.0
1712
17
Hancko CB
6.6
1547
18
Pubill CB
6.7
1528
22
Grimaldo RB
6.7
1516
8
Barrios LM
7.0
1603
11
Lookman CM
5.7
1500
20
Simeone CM
6.1
1569
23
Hjulmand RM
6.2
1522
7
Kang-In ST
6.5
1484
10
Baena ST
6.5
1489
1
Simón GK
7.8
1513
5
Yeray LB
7.3
1477
12
Areso CB
6.7
1446
14
Laporte CB
7.5
1441
17
Yuri RB
7.4
1479
8
Sancet CDM
8.0
1496
10
Williams CDM
8.1
1569
16
de Galarreta LW
7.2
1562
23
Navarro CAM
8.2
1461
24
Gerenabarrena RW
6.8
1516
9
Williams ST
1A
7.1
1553
AB
Athletic Bilbao
4-2-3-1
Athletic Bilbao · Bench
Aitor Paredes, Beñat Prados, Álex Berenguer, Gorka Guruzeta, Álex Padilla, Hugo Rincón, Mikel Jauregizar, Alejandro Rego, Maroan Sannadi, Iker Monreal, J. Louis-Jean, S. Sanchez
Atletico Madrid · Bench
J. Musso, Rodrigo Mendoza, J. Cardoso, Koke, J. David, Arnau Ortiz, J. Álvarez, C. Romero, Robin Le Normand, J. Dominguez, Dani MartÃnez, J. Castillo
Athletic Bilbao · last 5
Atletico Madrid · last 5
Head-to-head
05 Sep 2026
Athletic Bilbao
3–0
Atletico Madrid
25 Apr 2026
Atletico Madrid
3–2
Athletic Bilbao
06 Dec 2025
Athletic Bilbao
1–0
Atletico Madrid
01 Mar 2025
Atletico Madrid
1–0
Athletic Bilbao
31 Aug 2024
Athletic Bilbao
0–1
Atletico Madrid
27 Apr 2024
Atletico Madrid
3–1
Athletic Bilbao
16 Dec 2023
Athletic Bilbao
2–0
Atletico Madrid
19 Feb 2023
Atletico Madrid
1–0
Athletic Bilbao
15 Oct 2022
Athletic Bilbao
0–1
Atletico Madrid
30 Apr 2022
Athletic Bilbao
2–0
Atletico Madrid
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