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La Liga · Round 3 · Sun 30 Aug, 15:00

Pre-match prediction

81%
13%
Real Madrid 81% Draw 13% 6% Malaga

Made before lineups were confirmed for this match.

Low confidence: one or both teams have limited history in this competition, so this leans on cross-competition strength (Elo) rather than a full statistical fit.

Expected goals
2.39 – 0.49
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Both teams to score
35%
Model confidence
low

Most likely scorelines

2-0 16% 1-0 13% 3-0 13% 2-1 8% 4-0 8%

Compared to the betting market (reference only, not used as a model input)

Real Madrid
81% vs 87%
Draw
13% vs 9%
Malaga
6% vs 4%

Lineups

Reference only — not used by the prediction model. Positions (LB/CB/RB etc.) are a best-effort guess from the source's own left-to-right player order, not a confirmed tactical slot.

Malaga 4-4-2
1
Herrero GK
6.7 1465
3
Puga LB
6.3 1472
4
Galilea CB
6.2 1466
15
Recio CB
6.3 1465
31
Garrido RB
5.9 1475
10
Larrubia LM
7.0 1467
11
Muñoz CM
6.5 1483
14
Rodriguez CM
6.2 1494
23
Merino RM
6.5 1472
8
Dotor ST
6.7 1470
9
Chupete ST
6.9 1465
1
Courtois GK
6.9 1925
4
Huijsen LB
7.2 1600
12
Alexander-Arnold CB
1A 7.9 1516
17
Cucurella CB
7.2 1541
22
Rüdiger RB
7.3 1621
5
Bellingham CDM
Goal 8.3 1668
6
Camavinga CDM
6.9 1698
7
Júnior LW
1A 7.3 1838
8
Valverde CAM
7.2 1986
21
Díaz RW
6.7 1614
10
Mbappé ST
Goal 8.9 1599
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1

Real Madrid · Bench

Andriy Lunin, Arda Güler, Ibrahima Konaté, Álvaro Carreras, Carlos Espí, Bernardo Silva, Denzel Dumfries, Yan Diomande, Jorge Cestero, Javi Navarro, Mario Rivas, Alexis Ciria

Malaga · Bench

Álex Pastor, Ramón Enríquez, Haitam Abaida, Jose Salinas, Carlos Lopez, Eneko Jauregi, Pablo Martínez, Juan Cruz, Julen Lobete, Joseph Otunenche, Juan Fernandéz

Head-to-head

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