Premier League
· Round 4 · Mon 14 Sep, 19:00
Pre-match prediction
39%
29%
33%
Leeds 39%
Draw 29%
33% Newcastle United
✓Based on the confirmed starting lineups, not just each club's overall record.
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.32
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Both teams to score
58%
Model confidence
normal
Most likely scorelines
1-1 14%
2-1 9%
0-0 8%
1-2 8%
1-0 7%
Compared to the betting market (reference only, not used as a model input)
Leeds
39% vs 41%
Draw
29% vs 27%
Newcastle United
33% vs 32%
Lineups
Reference only — not used by the prediction model. Positions (LB/CB/RB etc.) are a best-effort guess from the source's own left-to-right player order, not a confirmed tactical slot.
NU
Newcastle United
4-2-3-1
21
Horníček GK
5.5
1503
3
Hall LB
6.4
1492
4
Botman CB
6.3
1533
12
Thiaw CB
5.9
1476
37
Dedić RB
5.2
1507
6
González CDM
1583
11
Barnes CDM
6.0
1507
20
Fernandez-Pardo LW
23
Murphy CAM
5.5
1567
67
Miley RW
5.4
1482
9
Wissa ST
6.4
1528
1
Trafford GK
7.5
1526
5
Muharemović CB
1A
7.3
1526
24
Justin CB
6.4
1565
30
Elvedi CB
1442
2
Bogle LM
8.0
1535
3
Gudmundsson CM
6.3
1526
4
Ampadu CM
6.5
1557
18
Stach CM
6.6
1523
22
Tanaka RM
6.7
1546
9
Calvert-Lewin ST
1A
8.4
1543
19
Okafor ST
7.9
1542
L
Leeds
3-5-2
Leeds · Bench
D. James, S. Longstaff, H. Wilson, B. Aaronson, L. Nmecha, J. Bijol, M. Zetterer, J. Bahoya, M. Bard
Newcastle United · Bench
N. Pope, T. Livramento, F. Schär, A. Bamba, Sean Steur, B. Touré, J. Willock, J. Ramsey, M. Miley
Leeds · last 5
Newcastle United · last 5
Head-to-head
14 Sep 2026
Leeds
4–1
Newcastle United
07 Jan 2026
Newcastle United
4–3
Leeds
30 Aug 2025
Leeds
0–0
Newcastle United
13 May 2023
Leeds
2–2
Newcastle United
31 Dec 2022
Newcastle United
0–0
Leeds
22 Jan 2022
Leeds
0–1
Newcastle United
17 Sep 2021
Newcastle United
1–1
Leeds
26 Jan 2021
Newcastle United
1–2
Leeds
16 Dec 2020
Leeds
5–2
Newcastle United
News
A team in form - how Farke has turned Leeds around
bbc · 15 Sep
Newcastle couldn't match the physicality of Leeds - Jaissle
bbc · 14 Sep
Farke 'very happy' with dominant Leeds performance
bbc · 14 Sep
Leeds inflict heavy defeat on Newcastle to climb to third
bbc · 14 Sep
Leeds United 4-1 Newcastle United: Premier League – as it happened
guardian · 14 Sep
Calvert-Lewin shows the way as Leeds thrash limp Newcastle and rise to third
guardian · 14 Sep
Calvert-Lewin stars but Botman struggles - player ratings for Leeds v Newcastle
bbc · 14 Sep
Farke’s blueprint for revitalised Leeds continues upward trajectory
guardian · 12 Sep