Bundesliga
· Round 5 · Sat 10 Oct, 13:30
Pre-match prediction
32%
25%
43%
Mainz 32%
Draw 25%
43% Bayer Leverkusen
⏳Made before lineups were confirmed for this match.
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.66
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Both teams to score
63%
Model confidence
normal
Most likely scorelines
1-1 11%
1-2 9%
2-1 8%
0-1 7%
2-2 7%
Compared to the betting market (reference only, not used as a model input)
Mainz
32% vs 31%
Draw
25% vs 26%
Bayer Leverkusen
43% vs 43%
Lineups
Reference only — not used by the prediction model. Positions (LB/CB/RB etc.) are a best-effort guess from the source's own left-to-right player order, not a confirmed tactical slot.
BL
Bayer Leverkusen
1
Flekken GK
6.1
1481
2
Medina LB
6.3
1499
3
Gutiérrez CB
6.2
1494
4
Quansah CB
6.0
1504
12
Tapsoba RB
6.5
1749
8
Andrich CM
7.6
1728
24
García CM
1A
7.7
1511
30
Maza CM
6.1
1491
9
Moreira LW
1A
6.3
1507
14
Schick ST
8.2
1588
19
Diaby RW
1492
1
Schwolow GK
5.5
1467
2
Mwene LB
6.5
1564
4
Posch CB
5.8
1513
19
Caci CB
2
9.1
1480
48
Potulski RB
6.2
1493
3
Gruber LM
6.1
1502
5
Martel CM
6.0
1510
6
Sano CM
6.3
1541
10
Amiri RM
1A
7.5
1525
9
Tietz ST
6.3
1491
23
Becker ST
6.7
1451
M
Mainz
Mainz · Bench
Lee Jae-Sung, R. Königsdörffer, L. Maloney, S. Bell, B. Hollerbach, D. da Costa, S. Kawasaki, M. Kinzig, R. Nakuzola
Bayer Leverkusen · Bench
L. Badé, E. Fernández, J. Hofmann, M. Tillman, M. Terrier, Lucas Vázquez, V. Boniface, N. Tella, J. Blaswich
Mainz · last 5
Bayer Leverkusen · last 5 D
Head-to-head
10 Oct 2026
Mainz
3–4
Bayer Leverkusen
28 Feb 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
1–1
Mainz
18 Oct 2025
Mainz
3–4
Bayer Leverkusen
17 May 2025
Mainz
2–2
Bayer Leverkusen
14 Jan 2025
Bayer Leverkusen
1–0
Mainz
23 Feb 2024
Bayer Leverkusen
2–1
Mainz
30 Sep 2023
Mainz
0–3
Bayer Leverkusen
19 Feb 2023
Bayer Leverkusen
2–3
Mainz
27 Aug 2022
Mainz
0–3
Bayer Leverkusen
18 Feb 2022
Mainz
3–2
Bayer Leverkusen
News
No recent news mentioning either team in our sources.