La Liga
· Round 5 · Sat 12 Sep, 19:00
Pre-match prediction
71%
18%
Real Madrid 71%
Draw 18%
11% Rayo Vallecano
✓Based on the confirmed starting lineups, not just each club's overall record.
Expected goals
2.25 – 0.78
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams to score
49%
Model confidence
normal
Most likely scorelines
2-0 12%
1-0 11%
2-1 10%
3-0 9%
1-1 8%
Compared to the betting market (reference only, not used as a model input)
Real Madrid
71% vs 83%
Draw
18% vs 11%
Rayo Vallecano
11% vs 6%
Lineups
Reference only — not used by the prediction model. Positions (LB/CB/RB etc.) are a best-effort guess from the source's own left-to-right player order, not a confirmed tactical slot.
RV
Rayo Vallecano
4-2-3-1
25
Audero GK
1478
2
Rațiu LB
5.7
1531
6
Ciss CB
5.9
1414
17
Pedrosa CB
1375
24
Lejeune RB
5.9
1440
4
Díaz CDM
6.7
1479
8
López CDM
6.4
1539
14
Tsitaishvili LW
6.0
1503
18
García CAM
5.6
1255
36
Bouare RW
10
Camello ST
8.2
1506
1
Courtois GK
8.3
1925
16
Konaté LB
6.7
1516
18
Fernández CB
7.9
1554
22
Rüdiger CB
7.0
1621
24
Dumfries RB
6.6
1512
5
Bellingham CDM
8.2
1668
7
Júnior CDM
1A
7.7
1838
8
Valverde LW
7.1
1986
20
Silva CAM
6.8
1516
25
Diomande RW
7.0
1514
10
Mbappé ST
2
1A
9.0
1599
RM
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1
Real Madrid · Bench
Raúl Asencio, D. Huijsen, E. Camavinga, Endrick, T. Alexander-Arnold, A. Lunin, A. Tchouaméni, A. Güler, Marc Cucurella, Carlos Espí, Brahim Díaz, Thiago Pitarch
Rayo Vallecano · Bench
Dani Cárdenas, M. Kumbulla, Alemão, Mujaid Sadick, I. Balliu, Pelayo Fernández, Óscar Valentín, Marco de las Sías, Samu Becerra, Adrián Molina, M. Roman, Rayane Belid
Real Madrid · last 5 C
Head-to-head
13 Sep 2026
Real Madrid
4–1
Rayo Vallecano
12 Sep 2026
Real Madrid
4–1
Rayo Vallecano
01 Feb 2026
Real Madrid
2–1
Rayo Vallecano
09 Nov 2025
Rayo Vallecano
0–0
Real Madrid
09 Mar 2025
Real Madrid
2–1
Rayo Vallecano
14 Dec 2024
Rayo Vallecano
3–3
Real Madrid
18 Feb 2024
Rayo Vallecano
1–1
Real Madrid
05 Nov 2023
Real Madrid
0–0
Rayo Vallecano
24 May 2023
Real Madrid
2–1
Rayo Vallecano
07 Nov 2022
Rayo Vallecano
3–2
Real Madrid
News
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guardian · 08 Sep
Real Madrid somehow cling on to beat Inter on José Mourinho’s big night
guardian · 08 Sep
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bbc · 08 Sep