La Liga
· Round 8 · Sat 10 Oct, 19:00
Pre-match prediction
66%
18%
15%
Real Madrid 66%
Draw 18%
15% Villarreal
✓Based on the confirmed starting lineups, not just each club's overall record.
Expected goals
2.53 – 1.20
Over 2.5 goals
72%
Both teams to score
64%
Model confidence
normal
Most likely scorelines
2-1 9%
3-1 8%
2-0 8%
1-1 7%
3-0 6%
Compared to the betting market (reference only, not used as a model input)
Real Madrid
66% vs 71%
Draw
18% vs 16%
Villarreal
15% vs 12%
Lineups
Reference only — not used by the prediction model. Positions (LB/CB/RB etc.) are a best-effort guess from the source's own left-to-right player order, not a confirmed tactical slot.
V
Villarreal
5-3-2
25
Gulácsi GK
6.5
1492
3
Freeman LWB
7.3
1496
6
Navarro CB
6.3
1554
8
Foyth CB
6.8
1610
12
Veiga CB
6.2
1517
23
Cardona RWB
6.6
1606
10
Moleiro CM
5.9
1546
14
Comesaña CM
6.5
1668
18
Gueye CM
6.8
1541
11
Akhomach ST
6.4
1556
22
Pérez ST
6.1
1545
1
Courtois GK
7.7
1929
12
Alexander-Arnold LB
6.7
1518
16
Konaté CB
6.7
1537
18
Fernández CB
7.2
1556
22
Rüdiger RB
6.8
1626
5
Bellingham CDM
6.5
1688
8
Valverde CDM
1A
7.7
2001
14
Tchouaméni LW
6.5
1746
15
Güler CAM
6.8
1633
25
Diomande RW
10
Mbappé ST
6.3
1619
RM
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1
Real Madrid · Bench
E. Camavinga, Vinícius Júnior, Endrick, A. Lunin, Marc Cucurella, Carlos Espí, Bernardo Silva, Brahim Díaz, D. Dumfries, Sergio Mestre, Thiago Pitarch
Villarreal · Bench
Luíz Júnior, Logan Costa, A. Diatta, Gerard Moreno, G. Mikautadze, S. Mouriño, C. Macia, Carlos Romero, T. Oluwaseyi, N. El Jmili
Real Madrid · last 5 D
Villarreal · last 5 A
Head-to-head
11 Oct 2026
Real Madrid
1–0
Villarreal
10 Oct 2026
Real Madrid
1–0
Villarreal
24 Jan 2026
Villarreal
0–2
Real Madrid
04 Oct 2025
Real Madrid
3–1
Villarreal
15 Mar 2025
Villarreal
1–2
Real Madrid
05 Oct 2024
Real Madrid
2–0
Villarreal
19 May 2024
Villarreal
4–4
Real Madrid
17 Dec 2023
Real Madrid
4–1
Villarreal
08 Apr 2023
Real Madrid
2–3
Villarreal
07 Jan 2023
Villarreal
2–1
Real Madrid
News
Champions League: Como clobber Lens 9-1 after Real Madrid roar back to deny AEK Athens
guardian · 04 Nov
Nadal set to join Real Madrid board of directors
bbc · 04 Nov
Real Madrid reach verbal agreement to sign Gabriel
bbc · 04 Nov
European football: Mbappé penalty helps Real Madrid stroll to sixth straight win
guardian · 01 Nov
Bellingham & Mbappe score as Real Madrid earn statement win
bbc · 01 Nov
Mourinho and chaos - is Real Madrid boss misunderstood?
bbc · 29 Oct
Mourinho’s plan comes together as Real Madrid relaunch with clásico statement | Sid Lowe
guardian · 26 Oct
Three roles and a goal: USMNT’s ‘super player’ Alex Freeman is breaking out for Villarreal
guardian · 26 Oct